Stock Market Analysis Aug 19 2016

Good morning!

Oil continued to rise and is the focus of attention. Traders should continue to long oil because of the short term uptrend and long term bullish reversal pattern. As long as oil is above its rising 60 min 20 MA, we continue to be bullish on oil in the short term. Meanwhile the stock market continue to meander and it is in a short term trading range with the bulls and bears battling it out. No sign of a clear short term uptrend in the major indexes so we remain neutral. Not bearish yet either.

Here's a summary of what the charts below are telling us:

Oil is in a short term uptrend and long term, it is forming a bullish reversal pattern. We remain bullish as long as oil is above its rising 60 min 20 and 50 MA.
Stock market is neutral and meandering. QQQ has given a 60 min bearish cross but we remain neutral because of the rising 60 min 200 MA in SPY and DIA.
Dollar is breaking an uptrendline and hence the rise in commodities and other currencies
Biotechs forming a daily box at support

Will write more about the long term outlook for stocks and commodities and stuff in next week's intermarket analaysis. For past stock market analysis go to Daily Stock Market Analysis 2016. To read the latest intermarket analysis and have a long term view of everything, go to Intermarket Analysis Aug 3rd Week 2016.

Now, lets see what the charts are telling us.

Major Indexes

Sectors

You can see XLE forming a 60 min Darvas Box Long Setup. By the way I just finished writing about the strategy and you can learn about it by reading The 60 Min Darvas Box Long Trading Strategy. This trading strategy is dynamic because you can use it to enter stocks as well as use it to analyze indexes,sectors and stocks.